Frost Sullivan: Whats Hot in Automotive and Transportation 2012

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Frost & Sullivan released the results from its customer survey with several hundred companies conducted in December 2011, executed to find out the top predictions for 2012 for the global automotive and transportation market. Market growth in all regions except Europe, accelerated introduction of plug in hybrid and battery electric vehicles due to increasing fuel prices, mobility and integrated transportation as well as the integration of the smart phone with dedicated application stores and innovative HMI concepts will be the key topics in 2012 and beyond.
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  • 1. What’s Hot in the Automotive & Transportation Industry Trends, Opportunities, and Challenges through the Eyes of Key Players in the SectorMay 2012
  • 2. Disclaimer• Frost & Sullivan takes no responsibility for any incorrect information supplied to us by manufacturers or users.• Quantitative market information is based primarily on interviews and, therefore, is subject to fluctuation.• Frost & Sullivan research services are limited publications containing valuable market information provided to a select group of customers in response to orders.• Our customers acknowledge, when ordering, that Frost & Sullivan research services are for their internal use and not for general publication or disclosure to third parties.• No part of this research service may be given, lent, resold or disclosed to non-customers without written permission.• Furthermore, no part may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the permission of the publisher.• For information regarding permission, write to: Frost & Sullivan 4 Grosvenor Gardens, London SW1W 0DH The United Kingdom © 2012 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan. 2
  • 3. Certification• We hereby certify that the views expressed in this research service accurately reflect our views based on primary and secondary research with industry participants, industry experts, end users, regulatory organisations, financial and investment community and other related sources.• In addition to the above, our robust in-house forecast and benchmarking models, along with the Frost & Sullivan decision support databases, have been instrumental in the completion and publishing of this research service.• We also certify that no part of our analyst compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this service. 3
  • 4. Table of Contents Introduction Introduction 5-7 5-7 Ø About this Market Insight 6 Ø Hot Topic Thought Leader 7 What’s Hot in 2012 What’s Hot in 2012 8-25 8-25 Ø Key Perspectives on Growth in the Automotive & Transportation Industry in 2012 9 Ø Market Highlights for 2012 10 Ø Automotive & Transportation – Participants per Sector Area 11 Ø What Participants see as Hot Topics in 2012 per Sector 12 Ø Convergence with other Industries 23 Ø 4 Big Predictions for 2012 24 Ø Automotive & Transportation – The “Link” to all Sectors 25 About Frost & Sullivan About Frost & Sullivan 26-31 26-31 4
  • 5. Introduction 5
  • 6. About this Market Insight Based on a survey of several thousand key companies conducted across Europe in December 2011, this Market Insight highlights the hot topics for growth that have been identified in the automotive and transportation sector for 2012 and beyond. Data and opinions of key stakeholders, combined with analysis and commentary from Frost & Sullivan industry experts, have been used to present key market highlights, hot growth topics, global and regional hot spots, areas of market convergence, and bold predictions for 2012. In this study, a summary of the highest growth areas for the automotive & transportation industry is presented for the following key sectors: • Electric Vehicles • Passenger Cars • Commercial Vehicles • Powertrain • Telematics & Connectivity • Urban Mobility • Automotive Aftermarket • Chassis & Safety • Rail • Logistics 6
  • 7. Krishnasami Rajagopalan - Hot Topic Thought Leader Functional Expertise - Over 7 years of automotive experience that includes strategic consulting and market research. Particular expertise in: - - New Business Opportunity Analysis - Customer Feedback and Satisfaction Analysis - Competitive Benchmarking and Positioning - End Consumer Analysis – Automotive Technologies Industry Expertise - Experience base covers a wide range of industry sectors, forming long standing relationships with senior executives in Automotive Chassis, Safety and Driver Assistance Systems domain, Green Technologies, Alternative Powertrains and Mobility. Krishnasami What I bring to the Team Rajagopalan - Understanding of the global automotive market and trends towards Programme Manager – - driving dynamics and advanced driver assistance systems, Automotive & - light weight technologies, green technologies, Transportation - alternative powertrain’s and future mobility trends. - Market research and consulting for the global automotive & transportation market Frost & Sullivan - Extensive client management, business development and presentation skills London, U.K. - Project Management and delivery to clients including global major OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers - Career Highlights - Wiper Business Unit - Lucas TVS, Chennai, India Education - Master of Science in Automotive Engineering, Coventry University, U.K. - Bachelor of Engineering in Manufacturing, Annamalai University, India 7
  • 8. What’s Hot in 2012 8
  • 9. Key Perspectives on Growth in the Automotive &Transportation Industry in 2012 Impact of increasing fuel prices on consumer 1 purchasing decisions Threat to conventional auto suppliers from non automotive suppliers entering automotive 2 supply chain and creation of new tier of suppliers New business opportunities from new business 3 models such as car sharing, integrated urban mobility and electric vehicles Shift in demand and supply regions for vehicles 4 and emerging markets driving automotive sales Tough economic climate and resulting 5 M&A/JV/alliances across automotive industry Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 9
  • 10. Market Highlights for 2012 Key Market Highlights • Better economic conditions, improving job market and loosening credit conditions in the United States will push the customer to continue buying new vehicles and the market is expected to grow by 8 percent to 13.8 Million in 2012. • 55 percent of the global vehicle sales to come from Asia, Eastern Europe and LATAM. • European debt crisis to continue to have an impact on the West European market with 5 percent decline in year on year vehicle sales. • Top 5 OEMs to account for about 37 million light vehicle sales by 2012. • Toyota expected to regain the crown as the largest OEM in 2012 as its production levels are expected to bounce back in 2012. • OEMs like Ford, PSA, Renault, Toyota and Opel are expected to lower production levels and delay the launch of new models to H2 of 2012 to address the challenge of production overcapacity. • Passenger vehicle diesel share to remain strong in Europe with a share of about 51 to 53 percent in 2012 while North American market will remain very niche with diesel vehicles accounting for just about 2 to 3 percent. 10
  • 11. Automotive & TransportationParticipants per Sector Area Key take Away • The top three sector areas of interest are – Electric Vehicles – Passenger cars – Commercial Vehicles • On average Automotive & Transportation people track 3.5 sector Source: Frost & Sullivan analysisN=183Total no. of responses: 633Q17: Please select all the market sector(s) you primarily track in Automotive & Transportation (incl.Logistics)? 11
  • 12. Automotive & TransportationWhat Participants see as Hot Topics in 2012Automotive & Transportation: Identification of Hot Topics (Europe), 2012 % of Respondents Rank Market Topic Nominating as Hottest Topic 1 Strategic Analysis of the Market for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles 37% 2 Executive Analysis and Outlook of Electric Vehicle Manufacturers and Sales 34% 3 Mega Trends that Will Impact Car of the Future 33% 4 2012 Electric Vehicles 360 Degree Perspective of the Market 33% 5 Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure Market 28% 6 Growth Opportunities in the Global Commercial Vehicle Industry 2010-2020 28% 7 Technology and Market trends of Lithium-ion Air Batteries for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles 25% 8 Strategic Analysis of Automotive Industry 25% 9 Analysis of Future of Powertrain Market 22% Vehicle Technologies Evolution Roadmap (Chassis, Safety, Infotainment, Powertrain, Transmission, 10 20% Comfort Convenience, Electronics) 11 Strategic Growth Opportunities in Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles Market 20% 12 Electric Vehicle Specification Database 2012 20% 13 Strategic Outlook of the Automotive Industry for 2012 20% 14 Strategic Outlook of the Passenger Car Market 2012 19% 15 CEO 360 Degree Perspective of the Automotive Industry – Opportunities for OEMs and Suppliers 19% 16 Impact of the Mega Trends and Urbanisation Developments on Logistics Services 19% OEMs’ Strategic Roadmap for Integrating Chassis, Safety and Driver Assistance Systems in Passenger 17 19% VehiclesN=183, Total no. of responses: 633Q18 to 27: Below is a list of hot topics in XXX according to our lead analyst forecast for 2012.Please rank the top five topics that are of highest interest to you ? Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 12
  • 13. 1. Electric VehiclesWhat Participants see as Hot Topics in 2012Electric Vehicles: Identification of Hot Topics (Europe), 2012 % of Respondents Rank Market Topic Nominating as Hottest Topic 1 Strategic Analysis of the Market for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles 65% 2 Executive Analysis and Outlook of Electric Vehicle Manufacturers and Sales 61% 3 2012 Electric Vehicles 360 Degree Perspective of the Market 58% 4 Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure Market 50% 5 Technology and Market trends of Lithium-ion Air Batteries for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles 44% 6 Electric Vehicle Specification Database 2012 35% 7 EV Charging Infrastructure market 31% 8 Automotive Power Electronics for EV and HEVs 26% 9 Wireless Charging Market Potential and Technology Assessment 20% 10 AC versus DC Fast Charging: Overview of OEMs strategies 14% 11 Technology Analysis of BMS and Onboard Chargers 11%N=104Q20: Below is a list of hot topics in electric vehicles according to our lead analyst forecast for 2012.Please rank the top five topics that are of highest interest to you ? Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 13
  • 14. 2. Passenger VehiclesWhat Participants see as Hot Topics in 2012Passenger Vehicles: Identification of Hot Topics (Europe), 2012 % of Respondents Rank Market Topic Nominating as Hottest Topic 1 Mega Trends that Will Impact Car of the Future 65% 2 Strategic Analysis of Automotive Industry 48% Vehicle Technologies Evolution Roadmap (Chassis, Safety, Infotainment, Powertrain, Transmission, 3 39% Comfort Convenience, Electronics) 4 Strategic Outlook of the Automotive Industry for 2012 38% 5 Strategic Outlook of the Passenger Car Market 2012 37% 6 CEO 360 Degree Perspective of the Automotive Industry – Opportunities for OEMs and Suppliers 37% 7 Strategic Outlook of the Global Automotive Industry in 2012 33% Identification of the Top 25 Fastest Growing Automotive Suppliers Based on Analysis of Geographic, 8 29% Technology and Financial Portfolio 9 Global Market for Premium Cars 23% 10 Strategic Assessment of Luxury Passenger Car Market 12% 11 SUV Market Growth Opportunities 11% 12 Executive White Paper on Rise of Mobility Integrators and their Impact on Personal Mobility 11% 13 Strategic Analysis of Car Sharing Markets 10% Strategic Growth Opportunities in Automotive Market from AFTA implementation and 14 7% New government policies 15 Competitive Analysis of Dealership Strategies of OEMS 6% 16 Benchmarking and Comparative Analysis of OEMs Dealership Performance across all revenue streams 4% 17 Strategic Analysis of the Market for Leasing and Fleet Vehicles 4% 18 Strategic Analysis of the Development of SUV and Pick-up Trucks 2% 19 Strategic Analysis of Passenger Car Dealership and Order Management 2% 20N=94 Strategic Analysis of OEMs Dealership Strategies 1%Q22: Below is a list of hot topics in passenger vehicles according to our lead analyst forecast for 2012.Please rank the top five topics that are of highest interest to you ? Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 14
  • 15. 3. Commercial VehiclesWhat Participants see as Hot Topics in 2012Commercial Vehicles: Identification of Hot Topics (Europe), 2012 % of Respondents Rank Market Topic Nominating as Hottest Topic 1 Growth Opportunities in the Global Commercial Vehicle Industry 2010-2020 66% 2 Strategic Growth Opportunities in Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles Market 47% 3 Small and Light Commercial Vehicles Market 39% 4 Hybrid and Electric Transit Bus Market 33% 5 Identification of Top-10 Advanced Truck Technologies and their market potential 28% 6 Electric Bus Market 28% 7 Strategic Analysis of Select Off-Highway Commercial Vehicle Market 22% 8 Fleet Managers’ Desirability and Willingness to Pay for Advanced Truck Technologies 16% 9 Truck Platforms of Major Heavy-duty OEMs 15% 10 Business Models and Best Practices in Truck Sales Infrastructure 15% 11 Natural Gas MCV-HCV Market 15% 12 Trailer Technologies and Markets 13% 13 Global City-Truck Market 13% 14 HCV Engine and Boosting Technologies 11% 15 Analysis of Bus Rapid Transit System 11% 16 Cabin Styling Trends 8% 17 MCV and HCV Axles and Suspension Systems Market 1% 18 MCV-HCV Air Disc Brake Market 1%N=79Q19: Below is a list of hot topics in commercial vehicles according to our lead analyst forecast for 2012.Please rank the top five topics that are of highest interest to you ? Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 15
  • 16. 4. PowertrainWhat Participants see as Hot Topics in 2012Powertrain: Identification of Hot Topics (Europe), 2012 % of Respondents Rank Market Topic Nominating as Hottest Topic 1 Analysis of Future of Powertrain Market 58% 2 360 Degree Perspective of the Powertrain Market 43% 3 Future of Powertrain and Engine Technologies Uptake Analysis 42% 4 Strategic Growth Opportunities in Alternate fuels and powertrains 39% 5 Strategic Analysis of Alternate Fuel Vehicles (CNG, LPG, Hybrid and Electric Vehicles) 33% 6 Analysis of Future of Powertrain and After Treatment Technologies 30% 2012 Powertrain Technologies and Features: Voice of Customer Study on Customer Attitudes, 7 28% Desirability and Willingness to Pay 8 OEM Strategies for Passenger Vehicle Engine Downsizing 25% 2012 Sustainability and Powertrain System Preferences: Voice of the Consumer - Attitudes, Perceptions 9 20% and Willingness to Pay 10 Analysis of Mild and Full Hybrid Technologies and Database 19% Strategic Analysis of the Diesel Exhaust After-treatment Technologies Market - SCR, DPF, EGR, NOx 11 16% Absorber, Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (DOC) 12 Strategic Analysis of the Passenger Car Market for Boosting Technologies 13% 13 Analysis of Impact of CO2 regulations on LCVs 13% 14 Executive Analysis of Start-Stop Systems Market [Advanced Technologies] 12% 15 Fuel Tank and Fuel Systems - Executive Analysis 12%N=69Q25 Below is a list of hot topics in Powertrain according to our lead analyst forecast for 2012.Please rank the top five topics that are of highest interest to you ? Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 16
  • 17. 5. Telematics & ConnectivityWhat Participants see as Hot Topics in 2012Telematics & Connectivity: Identification of Hot Topics (Europe), 2012 % of Respondents Rank Market Topic Nominating as Hottest Topic 1 Automotive Telematics and Connectivity Markets 53% OEM Benchmarking Study on Connected Telematics and Infotainment Offerings and Strategies and 2 45% Infotainment 2012 Connectivity and Automotive App Store Solutions and Services: Voice of the Consumer - Consumer 3 42% Perceptions, Attitudes, and Willingness to Pay 4 Comparative Analysis of the Commercial Vehicle Telematics Market 37% 5 Roadmap of New Services and Developments in the CV Telematic Markets 37% 2012 Infotainment Voice of the Customer Study: Consumers’ Attitudes, Perceptions, and Willingness to 6 35% Pay Regarding New Generation Infotainment, App Concepts, and HMI Solutions 7 Impact Assessment and New Developments in Smartphone Interface Technologies such as Mirror link 29% 8 Fleet Management Systems Market 27% Telematics Services Market - Focus on Emergency and Breakdown Assistance and Vehicle Tracking 9 26% Features 10 Tracking Legislation and its Impact on the Telematics Services Market 23% 11 Electronic Toll Collection Systems Market 18% In-Car Audio Systems Market - Including Focus on Audio Systems, Amplifiers, Speakers, Aux-in Features, 12 16% Sound Processing Software, etc 13 Telematics Services Market - Focus on Stolen Vehicle Tracking 15% 14 New Developments in the HVAC Market 13%N=62Q27 Below is a list of hot topics in Telematics & Connectivity according to our lead analyst forecast for 2012.Please rank the top five topics that are of highest interest to you ? Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 17
  • 18. 6. Urban MobilityWhat Participants see as Hot Topics in 2012Urban Mobility Markets: Identification of Hot Topics (Europe), 2012 % of Respondents Rank Market Topic Nominating as Hottest Topic Impact of the Mega Trends and Urbanisation Developments on Logistics Services, Business Models, 1 59% Vehicles & Technologies - Strategic Analysis of the Urban Logistics Market in 2020 2 Future Mobility Trends and Analysis of Multi-Modal Mobility 56% 3 Mobility Strategies of Global OEMs 53% Urban Mobility Tracker, Tracking of mobility patterns in large and very large cities, Voice of the 4 47% Customer study 5 Analysis of Fleet Market for Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 47% 6 Electric Bus Market 36% The Car Sharing Market - Voice of the Customer Study – Awareness, Interest, Features, Willingness to 7 29% Pay, Segmentation 8 Strategic Market and Competitive Analysis of Parking Management Systems 17% 9 Analysis of Bus Rapid Transit System 17% 10 Strategic Analysis of High Speed Rail Market 14% 11 Taxi markets in key cities 8% 12 Strategic Analysis of Fleet and Leasing Vehicles 8% 13 High Speed Train Logistics 5%N=59Q24 Below is a list of hot topics in Urban Mobility according to our lead analyst forecast for 2012.Please rank the top five topics that are of highest interest to you ? Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 18
  • 19. 7. Automotive AftermarketWhat Participants see as Hot Topics in 2012Automotive Aftermarket : Identification of Hot Topics (Europe), 2012 % of Respondents Rank Market Topic Nominating as Hottest Topic 1 2020 Vision of the Automotive Aftermarket (360 Study) 47% 2 Automotive Aftermarket Apps Store Analysis 31% 3 Automotive Marketing in the Age of Social Media 31% Understanding Vehicle Owner Attitudes and Behaviours toward Vehicle Maintenance and Repair 2012, 4 24% VoC 5 Role of OES Parts in Aftermarkets 22% 6 Battery Replacement and Charging Services Markets 20% 7 Penetration Opportunity for Alternative Passenger Vehicles 18% 8 Market Opportunities for Electronic Vehicle Accessories 16% Understand the Evolution of Technology in the Automotive Service Bay -- New Automotive Service Tools 9 14% and Equipment 10 360 Degree Perspective of the North American Automotive Aftermarket 14% 11 Analysis of remanufactured part opportunities in (list parts) for passenger cars and Commercial vehicles 12% Strategic Evaluation of the Benefits and Challenges of Vehicle Manufacturers Aftermarket Brand 12 12% Strategies 13 Competitive Options in the Roadside Assistance Service Market 12% 14 Light Vehicle Remanufactured Engines and Engine Components Aftermarket 12% 15 Benchmarking of Category Management Practices 8% 16 TPMS, Tire Pressure Monitoring System Aftermarket 8% 17 Light Vehicle Brakes Aftermarket 8% 18 Evaluating Acceptance and Value of OE Warranties and Extended Warranties on OES Business 6% 19 Market Engineering Analysis of the Light Vehicle Replacement Glass Aftermarket 6% 2
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