IBO Analysis March 2012

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New York City Independent Budget Office Fiscal Brie March 2012 Analysis of the Mayor’s Preliminary Budget for 2013 IBO’s Reestimate Of the Mayor’s Preliminary Budget for 2013 And Financial Plan Through 2016 IBO New York City Independent Budget Office Ronnie Lowenstein, Director 110 William St., 14th floor New York, NY 10038 Tel. (212) 442-0632 Fax (212) 442-0350 iboenews@ibo.nyc.ny.us www.ibo.nyc.ny.us Contents Overview Economic Oulook U.S. Economy The Local Forecast Taxes and Other Rev
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  IBO New York City Independent Budget OfceRonnie Lowenstein, Director110 William St., 14th oor New York, NY 10038Tel. (212) 442-0632Fax (212) 442-0350 iboenews@ibo.nyc.ny.us www.ibo.nyc.ny.us   New York City Independent Budget Office  March 2012  Analysis of theMayor’s Preliminary Budget for 2013 IBO’s ReestimateOf the Mayor’sPreliminary Budget for 2013 And Financial PlanThrough 2016  NYC Independent Budget Ofce March 2012 a Contents OverviewEconomic Oulook U.S. EconomyThe Local Forecast Taxes and Other Revenues Tax RevenuesOther Revenues Education Classroom Spending to Decline in Traditional PublicSchools, Payments to Nonpublic Schools to Rise Changes in State Aid State & Federal Changes AffectSome Major City Programs Federal Funding to Decline for Key Housing ProgramsState Actions Drive Cuts to Public Assistance Spending The Governor’s Medicaid Proposals: Short-Term Costs and Long-Term Savings for New York CityNew Cuts Threaten Funding Streams For City Public Hospitals Proposed Juvenile Justice Reform Presents CityWith Potential Challenges and Benets City Budget Initiatives Homeless Shelter Costs Likely toExceed Budget EstimatesAttrition Incentive Program Falls Short of TargetParks Department Plans to Somehow Raise $13 Million in Revenue  Youth Services: Budget Cuts Would Mean Loss of Thousands of After-School and Other Program SlotsCultural Organizations Becoming Increasingly Dependent on Adopted Budget Restorations Library Subsidies Could Hit Lowest Levels in a DecadeTwenty Fire Companies Once AgainScheduled to Be Deactivated 17813161922252628303335363838394041  ANALYSIS OF THE MAYOR’S PRELIMINARY BUDGET FOR 2013 NYC Independent Budget Ofce March 2012 b Proposed Police Ofcer Stafng to Remain Level Next Year, Civilian Positions to Decline Labor Costs Health Insurance Costs Growing,Retiree Health Trust Funds DepletedLittle in Reserve for Expired Labor ContractsPensions Changes: New Tier Saves Less than Budgeted,Shifts in Actuarial Methods Has Upfront Savings Capital Spending, Financing & Debt Service Four-Year Capital Commitment PlanPaying for the Capital Program Contributors 42434445495053
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